5 Questions with: RSIS's Jefferson Ng
What the youth vote stands for, and why Prabowo appeals to them.
“5 Questions with” features in-depth interviews with experts from academia, business, government, and nonprofits.
The 2024 Presidential Elections in Indonesia is well underway, with frontrunner Prabowo Subianto enjoying a clear lead over the competition. While his status as incumbent president Joko Widodo’s “designated successor” is a strong advantage, Prabowo’s appeal to the youth vote also stands out from his competitors.
That move struck a chord with the electorate, particularly because youths aged between 17 to 39 years old comprise nearly 52% of eligible voters this time.
To better understand why young voters are drawn to Prabowo’s message, we sat down with S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) Associate Research Fellow Jefferson Ng to get his take.
SEAmplified: In what ways does the 2024 Presidential Elections in Indonesia differ from earlier rounds?
Jefferson: Every election has its own unique dynamic.
The 2014 presidential election was dominated by Jokowi’s rise as a populist leader, while the one in 2019 was both a referendum on Jokowi’s first term and the rising challenge of Islamic conservatism in Indonesian politics. This time, the themes revolve around bread-and-butter concerns and the sentiment that Indonesia has a shrinking window of opportunity to full leverage its demographic dividend and propel itself to developed country status.
This election is unprecedented in that the incumbent president has so much influence in shaping its dynamic. In some sense, all three presidential candidates are operating within the boundaries that have been set [by President Joko Widodo’s administration].
This election is also significantly more focused on bread-and-butter issues. Perhaps it is a lingering COVID-19 aftereffect, but it also drives home the point that there’s a shrinking window of opportunity for Indonesia to leverage its demographic demand.
If Indonesia is unable to leverage this dividend within the next 10 to 15 years, they will essentially waste this dividend, and many youths will struggle to find their place in the new economy.
SEAmplified: The youth vote is particularly important in Indonesia’s 2024 presidential elections. How have the candidates addressed youths’ concerns so far?
Jefferson: In an event last year where the presidential candidates spoke to a student audience at the University of Gadjah Mada, the top six concerns highlighted by students were: corruption and law enforcement, job creation, freedom of expression, living environment, digital adaptation, and religious and ethnic diversity.
In this election, each candidate is essentially putting forward their own angles that sell themselves best. So while there’s an understanding that appealing to youths is important, each candidate has done so via different approaches.
For presidential candidate Ganjar Pranowo and his running mate Mohammad Mahfud Mahmodin, their focus, from the very beginning, was very much taking a tougher stance against corruption through the reform of the police, Attorney-General’s office, and the revitalisation of the Anti-Corruption Commission. Raise foreign investments by reducing corruption/red tape, promote education reform and manpower planning to make sure that graduates are equipped with the skills needed by industry.
For Anies Baswedan and his running mate Muhaimin Iskandar, their campaign spotlights how Indonesia’s economic growth over the last few years has not been inclusive. Economic development has disproportionately benefited large state enterprises and businesses but the benefits have not trickled down to the Indonesian working class, particularly those in the primary industries such as agriculture and fisheries. There was also talk around police reform, to improve the competency and professionalism of the police, and to also give the Indonesian Ombudsman stronger monitoring capabilities.
Prior to his presidential bid, Anies also launched a zero down payment plan to make housing in the Jakarta region more affordable to youths, a sorely needed initiative as millions of young Indonesians are unable to afford the 20-25% downpayment for a home.
SEAmplified: And what has Prabowo done differently?
For Prabowo and his running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka (who is President Jokowi’s son), he’s seen as essentially perceived as continuing President Jokowi’s legacy (new capital project, resource downstreaming, physical infrastructure development)
His angle first and foremost is furthering the achievements of the Jokowi presidency which, bear in mind, enjoys significant popularity among the Indonesian public. Put another way, his contenders are essentially trying to win votes by chipping away at that legacy, and that’s a near-insurmountable feat to pull off.
The only fresh angle his team has to play is addressing the youth vote, and he has done so exceedingly well by leveraging social media and focusing on the need to develop Indonesia’s human capital potential.
Prabowo’s ability to reinvent himself as a representative for youths is clear. It also pays to bear in mind that many youths, being first-time voters, don’t remember Prabowo’s human rights abuses during the New Order period; they only care about who is able to provide them jobs and attract foreign investors.
SEAmplified: Many Indonesian youths are concerned about job creation. What are some of their concerns around the job market?
What I’ve observed is that because vocational training and university education in Indonesia have been inadequate, many local graduates cannot find employment with large multinational companies and end up finding themselves pushed into the informal/gig economy.
More importantly, a high percentage of Indonesians only have primary or secondary-level education.
Of course, the problem of employment doesn’t just lie with the lack of talent alone. Red tape and corruption have also deterred foreign investments. If Indonesia is unable to reverse the trend of deindustrialisation, it will not be able to create sufficient good and high paying jobs for youths.
What then happens is that young graduates don’t have a skill set, and there are no jobs. So these youths go into the gig economy as delivery riders, and find it difficult to escape being under-employed.
SEAmplified: Presidential candidates are adopting social media, among other novel strategies, to capture the youth vote. How effective are these strategies?
Jefferson: It’s just so much more cost-effective for presidential campaigns to reach out to voters via social media instead of, say, paid advertising on television. The latter requires significant monetary commitment to achieve the same goal as posting a video on a platform like Instagram or TikTok.
That said, social media is a chaotic marketplace. It’s totally unregulated, and unless users make a conscious effort to consume different perspectives, algorithms will simply feed users more content that already fit their preferences.